Predictive models for meat

Gry Carl Terrell

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Predictive models

Predictive models for meat

DMRI’s predictive models, which are all available at, can give you a quick and easy overview of how well your products are protected against the growth of pathogenic bacteria. If the products are not safe, it is easy to find a solution to the problem: just enter the specific values for your product, and in a matter of seconds the answer will appear on your screen. Companies that pack fresh meat can use the shelf life models to get a solid estimate of the shelf life of different types of fresh meat.

DMRI offers consultancy

Use of the predictive models is free of charge, although, if you prefer, DMRI can save you time and effort by doing all the work for you. DMRI can prepare documentation on food safety and shelf life of your products to ensure that both regulatory requirements and customer demands are met. The documentation provides companies with a status of the safety of their products and includes a systematic assessment of the effect their production processes have on the growth or elimination of pathogenic bacteria across the entire supply chain – from production to consumption. The documentation can be prepared on the basis of predictions, existing trial results or results from challenge tests performed on specific products.


DMRI offers courses in the use of predictive models that provide a practical and theoretical insight into the calculation of:

  • Growth of Listeria
  • Growth/no-growth of C. botulinum
  • Inactivation of pathogens during the production of fermented and matured sausages
  • Shelf life of fresh pork and beef
  • Other available predictive tools

After the course you will have insight in the theory of growth and inactivation of pathogenic bacteria, the practical application of predictive models and the evaluation of results.

If you are interested in company-specific courses in Danish or English, please contact

DMRI’s predictive models for meat can be accessed free of charge at

The following predictive models are currently available:

  • Growth of L. monocytogenes in meat products
  • Growth/no-growth of C. botulinum in meat products
  • Growth/no-growth of Y. enterocolitica in salted meat products
  • ConFerm – reduction of pathogens during the production of fermented and matured salami
  • Risk of Staphylococcus aureus toxin formation and growth of S. aureus during heat treatment and fermentation
  • Prediction of the increase in F121.1-value necessary to obtain equivalent safety in canned meat with reduced salt content
  • Shelf life of pork cuts
  • Shelf life of minced pork and beef
  • Shelf life of beef cuts
  • Shelf life of chicken cuts